The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is making significant strides in West Bengal, while Assam witnesses a more one-sided electoral battle. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) maintains a favorable position, according to Matrize News Communications Pvt. Ltd Director Manoj Kumar Singh. Singh emphasizes the complexity of electoral predictions, cautioning against relying solely on voting percentages to forecast outcomes.
Singh highlights the distinction between vote share and seat conversion, particularly in smaller states like Assam, where minor shifts can have substantial consequences. He notes that even a slight change in vote percentage can greatly impact results, emphasizing the potential for confusion when projecting seats based solely on voting percentages.
In Assam, Singh observes a shift towards a one-sided contest in the final phase of elections. He attributes this change to a controversy involving Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s wife’s passport issue, which led to perceptions of weak leadership within the Congress party. Singh also notes a shift in Assam’s political landscape away from the traditional Hindu-Muslim narrative, influenced by delimitation that increased Hindu-majority constituencies.
Regarding Tamil Nadu, Singh predicts a strong performance by the DMK under M.K. Stalin’s leadership. Despite the enthusiasm generated by actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) among the youth, Singh anticipates a division in the vote share of both the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
