China’s real GDP growth in 2025 is projected to be between 2.5-3%, falling short of the government’s target of around 5%. This discrepancy has sparked doubts about the actual state of the world’s second-largest economy and the accuracy of official data, as per a report by Mizzima News.
The report attributes this gap to a significant drop in fixed assets and property investment, ongoing producer-price deflation, and weak domestic demand, factors that could further slow growth in 2026. According to estimates by the Rhodium Group, China’s year-on-year expansion for the first three quarters was 5.2%, contrasting sharply with independent projections.
Rhodium Group forecasts China’s growth to decline to 1-2.5%, well below international expectations like the IMF’s forecast of approximately 4.5% growth next year. The report underscores that fixed-asset investment turned negative by mid-2025, with a downturn in property sector investment dragging down overall capital formation.
Producer prices have been decreasing for over three years, and consumer spending saw minimal growth late in 2025, indicating feeble domestic demand. Despite a slight uptick in headline inflation towards the year-end, broader price data reveal persistent weaknesses in domestic demand and ongoing deflationary pressures at the producer level, notes the Myanmar-based media house.
The report emphasizes a significant disparity between independent assessments and official statistics, prompting calls for transparency and robust statistical methods. Critics argue that the official narrative might overlook these differences, especially during periods of pressure to maintain confidence and project economic stability.
The reliance on foreign trade to sustain headline figures exposes domestic vulnerabilities and raises concerns about the sustainability of growth, the report highlights.
