India is projected to exceed China in terms of its share of the global GDP measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2060, as per a report from the Paris School of Economics (PSE)-based World Inequality Lab (WIL). The report highlights that China’s contribution to the global GDP is expected to decrease in the latter half of the 21st century. Currently, China holds about 20% of the world GDP in PPP terms, which is anticipated to remain substantial until the 2030s. However, the report suggests that China’s declining population will impact its long-term economic performance.
China’s population share has been rapidly decreasing, dropping from 23% of the global population in 1945 to approximately 17% in 2025 and is forecasted to be less than 8% by 2100, according to the report. Consequently, China’s share in the world GDP is predicted to diminish in the latter half of the 21st century, with India expected to overtake it around 2060. Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are used to gauge the total goods and services a unit of a country’s currency can purchase in another country.
The report also suggests that the world is likely to become multipolar in the 21st century, with China unlikely to reach the dominant position the US held around 1950, accounting for 35-40% of the global GDP. Similarly, Europe had a comparable position around 1900-1910, with about 40-45% of the world’s GDP, as noted in the report. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report forecasts India’s gross domestic product to reach around $4.15 trillion in 2026, up from $3.92 trillion in 2025, while the UK’s GDP is expected to touch $4.27 trillion, up from $4 trillion in 2025. The US GDP is projected to reach $32.38 trillion in 2026, with China, the second-largest economy, estimated at $20.85 trillion.
