India may achieve a growth rate exceeding 7% by the fiscal year 2028 if macroeconomic stability is upheld and supply-side reforms persist, according to Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran. This optimism comes amidst ongoing global uncertainties impacting the immediate economic outlook. The Reserve Bank of India recently adjusted its GDP growth projection for FY27 to 6.6%, down from the earlier 6.9% estimate in April, attributing this revision to escalating energy and commodity prices, as well as supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict.
Nageswaran, speaking in New Delhi, acknowledged the RBI’s revised forecast, emphasizing the significant global uncertainties at play. He highlighted the dual nature of risks in the current scenario, with potential upsides and downsides to the growth trajectory. The Chief Economic Adviser suggested that India’s growth prospects could strengthen once external pressures alleviate, especially if global conditions stabilize in the upcoming years.
The economy might bounce back to a more robust growth trajectory post temporary disruptions, Nageswaran indicated. Even if growth temporarily dips below 7%, as per the RBI’s projections, measures ensuring macro stability and supply guarantees could propel India back to a growth path exceeding 7% by FY28 or once external conditions ameliorate. Nageswaran also underscored that this recovery scenario hinges on the reversal of geopolitical and economic disturbances that emerged since late February. He cautioned that the outlook remains subject to how global developments unfold in the near term.
