India experienced a 3% year-on-year decline in smartphone shipments during the January-March quarter of 2026, marking its weakest first-quarter performance in six years. This decline was attributed to factors such as rising supply-side costs, manufacturer price hikes, and subdued consumer demand, despite a higher number of new product launches. To combat escalating component costs, around one-third of model launches were moved up to the first quarter to address bill of materials inflation, driven by surging memory prices and currency fluctuations.
Senior Analyst Prachir Singh highlighted that the market is grappling with affordability challenges due to significant memory-led cost inflation and currency pressures, leading to price increases across key models. The sub-Rs 15,000 segment has been particularly affected by average price hikes exceeding Rs 1,500, reflecting its high price sensitivity. Moreover, escalating energy costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further strained household budgets, prompting consumers to prioritize essential spending over non-essential purchases like smartphones. This shift has elongated upgrade cycles, and the recovery in the mass segment is anticipated to be gradual.
Samsung secured the second position among smartphone brands, driven by strong performance in its mass-market offerings and a positive reception to its latest flagship series, which garnered robust pre-bookings. Meanwhile, Apple continued to witness steady growth in the premium segment, achieving a shipment share of 9%, supported by sustained demand for its latest iPhone lineup and attractive financing options. The report also highlighted the resilience of the premium segment compared to the weaker demand in the entry-level segment.
Looking ahead, Research Director Tarun Pathak anticipates continued market pressure in the short term, with the April-June quarter expected to witness a double-digit decline due to high component costs and subdued demand in lower price segments. For the full year, the market is forecasted to decline by approximately 10% year-on-year, as sustained inflation in key components, particularly memory, continues to impact affordability and delay replacement cycles.
