Saudi Arabia is reportedly contemplating a significant defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan, expanding on the existing Saudi-Pakistani mutual defense agreement signed in September 2025. This potential move has raised concerns about the Kingdom taking on new obligations and risks previously not encountered. The proposed trilateral agreement could shift Saudi Arabia’s security focus from the Gulf region to the control of non-Gulf nations.
The strategic analyst Shay Gal highlighted that such a defense pact might introduce uncertainties and risks contrary to the predictability crucial for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. While Ankara and Islamabad could gain leverage and flexibility, Riyadh could face increased responsibilities and risks. The agreement could potentially impact Saudi Arabia’s market perception and strategic positioning.
According to the analysis, if Saudi Arabia strengthens Turkey’s role in its security framework at the expense of Gulf alliances, it may inadvertently boost Turkey’s strategic significance over the Kingdom. This shift could affect Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to become a regional hub. The pact might redefine Saudi Arabia as a risk rather than a security, tying the Kingdom to obligations beyond its control while benefiting other parties.
The potential pact could have economic implications as well, with Saudi credibility possibly becoming linked to Pakistan’s capabilities and vice versa. Turkey stands to gain regional legitimacy, a larger defense market, and direct access to Gulf military networks through a formal security role in the Gulf. The agreement could reshape power dynamics in the region, impacting various stakeholders differently.
