The silver market witnessed significant changes in 2025 due to supply deficits, inventory depletion, and supply constraints. A report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd forecasts silver prices to reach Rs 2,46,000 per kg in the domestic market. The brokerage advises a buy-on-dips strategy with a staggered investment approach.
According to the report, despite achieving the initial target of $75 on COMEX, the firm maintains a target of $77 on COMEX, equivalent to Rs 2,46,000 domestically. The rally in silver prices is attributed to physical tightness and decreasing exchange inventories, indicating a structural shift rather than a cyclical trend.
The market’s rally is not solely speculative but reflects underlying stresses between paper pricing mechanisms and physical availability. Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited, highlighted the widening gap between paper pricing and physical availability, indicating deeper stress in global price discovery mechanisms.
COMEX and Shanghai inventories experienced sustained drawdowns in 2025, with Shanghai spot silver prices holding a premium over COMEX futures. Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., pointed out persistent inventory drawdowns globally, weakening arbitrage between Shanghai and COMEX, and delivery pressures, revealing limited deliverable silver availability.
The silver market has faced a physical deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with mine supply falling short of industrial and investment demand. Silver prices surged to record levels, surpassing $75 on COMEX and exceeding Rs 2.3 lakh in the domestic market, marking a remarkable increase of over 160 percent.
